Here Be Dragons

2008-02-08

I had a commenter who wanted to vote for Obama because she didn't think Hillary could win against McCain and McCain is anti-abortion and pro-Iraq (I see nothing wrong with finishing a war we are winning, as a matter of fact I feel it's a duty, but we can agree to disagree here.)

Fay, I don't think I know you and you left no link or email but I want to answer that fear that Hillary's numbers are so negative that only Obama has a chance to win against the Republicans.

First of all I am always shocked that people listen to their neighbors and think the whole of America feels the same way their state does. Hillary carried off some massive wins in certain states, especially in the states that mattered when it comes to delegates. She is NOT universally hated, although I grant that she may be hated where you live, anymore than Huckabee is loved everywhere yet he pulled 60 something percent of one of the southern states (I forget which one).

The Republicans are split idealogically. McCain is not a mainstream Republican although he's nowhere near as liberal as people think he is. He represents a split within his party. They will fight amongst themselves if McCain wins.

The leading democratic nominees are so close ideologically that you can't fit a piece of paper between them however. So how do they determine who wins the nomination besides a tough fight that may end up essentially split? I think it's covered in this article:

Susan Estrich:

Tough.

That's the word of the hour.
Hillary Clinton wants everyone to know that she won't be swift-boated by anyone. She may or may not win the Democratic nomination, but it won't be for want of toughness. And toughness is what it will take to beat John McCain in November.

How do you win in a system in which, unlike the Republican contests, the loser takes almost as many delegates as the winner, and reaching the magic majority requires the sort of statistical run that neither Clinton nor Barack Obama has managed to pull off consistently?

The short answer is superdelegates. With 792 party leaders and elected officials going to the Democratic National Convention as superdelegates, the fight will be on for that pool of 20 percent of the delegates. And make no mistake, the Clintons, with 35 years of political chits and connections to call in, will be calling in every one.

Tough doesn't begin to describe it. Have you ever tried to say "no" to Bill Clinton one-on-one? I mean about politics, silly.

The superdelegates include members of Congress, governors and the largest group, members of the Democratic National Committee. Ask most people about the DNC and they think you're talking about a gynecological procedure. I defy most people to name a single DNC member, even from their own state.
...

It is ironic that in a party (Republican) that has candidates fighting to lead a retreat that they are campaigning on the issue of toughness. This is not going to look all that "tough" in the fall when they face a candidate (Hillary) who does not want to lose the war.

Hillary CAN win!! And guess what? Ten percent of those delegates reside in california, a state Hillary carried.

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